	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
VARIABLES	Primary balance	h = .10	h = .15	T ≥ 30 years	M = int(T/8)	M = int(T/12)	yit ~ 2±-year window	yit ~ entire episode
								
rules_in_place	0.72***	0.61***	0.70***	0.87***	0.50***	0.69**	0.86***	0.72***
	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.23)	(0.28)	(0.19)	(0.28)	(0.25)	(0.21)
L.GGXONLB_NGDP	-0.04**	-0.03**	-0.03**	-0.06***	-0.03*	-0.07***	-0.04***	0.01
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.01)
L.GGXWDG_NGDP	0.01***	0.01***	0.01***	0.01***	0.00*	0.01***	0.01***	0.01***
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
L.INTP_GGR	0.05***	0.05***	0.05***	0.06***	0.03***	0.06***	0.06***	0.05***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.01)
L.NGDP_RPCH	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
L.lnNGDP_D_fd2	-0.05	-0.09***	-0.05	-0.07*	-0.05	-0.10**	-0.12***	-0.02
	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)
L.BCA_NGDPD	0.03***	0.03***	0.04***	0.06***	0.02***	0.06***	0.06***	0.05***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
hipc	-0.14	-0.33	-0.33	-0.21	-0.03	0.03	0.10	0.24
	(0.38)	(0.42)	(0.42)	(0.37)	(0.24)	(0.43)	(0.45)	(0.32)
imf_support	-0.26	-0.32	0.08	0.02	0.20	0.68	0.12	-0.32
	(0.35)	(0.28)	(0.36)	(0.39)	(0.28)	(0.43)	(0.48)	(0.30)
POLenv	0.02	0.10	0.06	0.07	0.15*	0.29*	0.18	0.05
	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.12)	(0.14)	(0.09)	(0.16)	(0.15)	(0.09)
ear90s	-1.31**	-0.96**	-1.41**	-1.65***	-0.95**	-1.59**	-1.19**	-1.42***
	(0.54)	(0.46)	(0.57)	(0.58)	(0.44)	(0.68)	(0.52)	(0.37)
mid90s	-0.70	-0.50	-0.53	-0.64	-0.17	-0.70	-0.71	-0.71*
	(0.43)	(0.42)	(0.45)	(0.46)	(0.43)	(0.48)	(0.49)	(0.40)
ear00s	-1.04**	-1.31***	-0.82*	-1.14**	-0.60	-0.87*	-1.09**	-1.38***
	(0.46)	(0.43)	(0.46)	(0.48)	(0.42)	(0.48)	(0.48)	(0.43)
mid00s	-0.95**	-1.03**	-0.96**	-1.24**	-0.55	-0.68	-1.10**	-1.00**
	(0.46)	(0.43)	(0.46)	(0.49)	(0.42)	(0.49)	(0.49)	(0.43)
ear10s	-1.10**	-1.03**	-0.98**	-1.11**	-0.39	-0.98*	-1.05**	-1.29***
	(0.47)	(0.45)	(0.47)	(0.49)	(0.43)	(0.50)	(0.50)	(0.42)
mid10s	-0.84*	-1.17**	-1.06**	-1.33**	-0.65	-1.17**	-1.31**	-1.01**
	(0.47)	(0.46)	(0.48)	(0.52)	(0.44)	(0.49)	(0.52)	(0.41)
ear20s	-1.77***	-1.29**	-2.06***	-2.13***	-1.19**	-2.23***	-2.42***	-2.07***
	(0.57)	(0.52)	(0.56)	(0.65)	(0.51)	(0.70)	(0.64)	(0.52)
emde	-0.45	0.01	-0.38	-0.55	-0.22	-0.52	-0.48	-0.17
	(0.39)	(0.35)	(0.43)	(0.51)	(0.31)	(0.56)	(0.56)	(0.37)
Commodity	0.74***	0.38*	0.21	0.79**	0.47***	0.88**	0.62*	0.30
	(0.24)	(0.20)	(0.27)	(0.32)	(0.18)	(0.35)	(0.34)	(0.23)
ss	-0.20	-0.01	-0.13	-0.39	-0.19	-0.39	-0.26	-0.30
	(0.34)	(0.29)	(0.37)	(0.52)	(0.30)	(0.51)	(0.51)	(0.32)
lnsig2u	-0.24	-0.38	0.08	0.18	-0.75**	0.62	0.66**	-0.41
	(0.33)	(0.46)	(0.34)	(0.40)	(0.34)	(0.39)	(0.33)	(0.38)
Constant	-1.62***	-1.76***	-1.77***	-1.99***	-1.59***	-3.13***	-1.96***	-1.62***
	(0.52)	(0.51)	(0.54)	(0.55)	(0.45)	(0.66)	(0.60)	(0.43)
								
Observations	2,809	2,853	2,826	2,192	2,680	2,947	2,883	3,290
Number of ccode	123	122	122	91	122	122	122	122
Log likelihood	-726.4	-717.2	-728.1	-591.9	-927	-545.9	-887.7	-830
